Spatial Clustering Analysis of Mortality Tuberculosis in The Iraq, 2018 To 2022

Abstract

Back ground: Iraq's Environmental Statistics and Health Indicators published annual mortality rates for tuberculosis from 2018 to 2022. However, this publication does not assess whether the patterns are merely the result of chance or whether they accurately reflect regional variations in disease risk or treatment methods. To formally test for geographical clustering of disease, we used global spatial autocorrelation to analyze Iraq's annual TB mortality rates from 2018 to 2022. The spatial scan statistic, the Anselin Local Moran's I, and Getis-Ord Gi* were used to determine the spatial variations of TB mortality rates. Geographic clustering was statistically significant across all age and gender groups, according to all tests. The spatial scan statistic indicated that the most likely cluster of high mortality was in parts of Dha qar, Maysan, Basrah, Diwaniyah, Muthanna, Wasit, Babil, Najaf, and Karbala, (LLR= 4.71, P > 0.05). Secondary clusters were found in Ninawa, Dahuk, Karbala, Arbil, Tam’mim, Salah ad din, Sulaymaniyah, Diyala, and Anbar (LLR= 0.88, P < 0.05). For 25% maximum window size, the statistically significant most likely was found around Diwaniyah, Babil, Wasit, Karbala, Dha qar, and Najaf (LLR= 3.65, P > 0.05), with secondary clusters in Ninawa, Dahuk, Karbala, Arbil, Tam’mim, Salah ad din, Sulaymaniyah, Diyala, and Anbar (LLR= 0.88, P < 0.05).

Keywords:

Iraq, Tuberculosis (TB), Moran’s I, Anselin Local Moran’s I and Getis-Ord Gi*

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